GutterPutter

North America

Typically seen as the weakest region due to its top-heavy skill gap, much of the region’s league results throughout the season always boil down to either Evil Geniuses, Team SoloMid, or Quincy Crew/Soniqs. With the first two teams having managed to secure the invitation to the tournament, Soniqs’s underperformance at the Arlington Major means that they must pass through a series of rivals to perform in the premier tournament. By that, I mean the very teams that they beat with ease for the past season. Comprised of experienced, versatile players who, by now, are regarded as one of the best in their positions in NA with a high rank in the leaderboard to back it up, this qualifier should be a clean sweep for the team if they want to show that they have what it takes to make a deep run.

The closest they have to a near-peer rival would be nouns, similarly made up of veterans like David ‘Moo’ Hull who previously placed 2^nd in TI6 with Digital Chaos, who shows a bit of potential in the leading matches up to the last major. However, they are starting to run out of steam between the last tour and the main qualifiers.

Another competitor would be Wildcard Gaming, led by Samuel ‘Sammyboy’ Anderson, who could be eliminated quite easily had the general competitive scene in NA be more spread-out equally in terms with overall talent. Whatever games I managed to check out from them, I can’t say for sure that I’m impressed by their teamplay and it doesn’t help that some of the players have been criticised for coming off as ‘nagging’ about a slimmer of opportunity to test their skills out against the top teams.

A serious underdog potential could be found in The Cut or 5RATFORCESTAFF who are both made up of unproven pubstars & had cruised through the second division only to be stomped with ease by the best in the region. Given the history of surprises in the tournament, there is always the possibility that either of the two could push themselves to their limit and make a deep run. However, the chances of such narrative happening is miniscule even when compared to nouns. As long as the meta in the region leans in favour of dominating the laning phase with not much hindsight being put forward what follows it, I’m placing my bets on Soniqs to pull through thanks to the aggressive leadership of Adrian ‘Fata’ Trinks and some occasional unorthodoxy in the drafts. I would then suspect nouns to be one team who would go all the way to the grand finals as even if they might come off as being inconsistent, the previous track records of the players should suggest that they could deliver in the most important events.

South America

If we were to be frank about the region, it might not always have the cleanest performances from their teams. Outside of beastcoast and Thunder Awaken, naming one team that could reasonably deliver this year is very difficult. The three SA teams that performed last year are either eliminated in the group stage or have placed last in the main event – not the most flattering way to show off your region’s talents. Because of the history of underperformance in most Valve-sponsored tournaments, it can be hard to predict who could reasonably move on to TI with all the prowess that could make for a shocking delivery. If you think NA is pretty predictable with how top-heavy the difference in skills between the teams are, SA is difficult to predict because the very teams that should cruise through the qualifiers has already been invited to the event.

The closest team who is able to consistently perform throughout the season would have to be Infamous, led by veteran Christian ‘Accel’ Cruz who’s one of the first Peruvian players to attend a Valve major in 2015’s Frankfurt with Unknown. Managing to always perform close to the level of their two competitors yet always just falling short of joining the major, you would think that Infamous could have what it takes to pull through especially on the back of one of the most experienced player on the scene.

However, Infamoys has undergone a series of roster changes throughout the season. Ending with David Nicho ‘Parker’ Chote as the carry, Leonardo ‘Leostyle-’ Sifuentes on mid, and Frank Arias as the offlaner in just August of this year, it makes you wonder about whether they’ll be able to develop the chemistry to thrive.

It’s because of this concern that I end up deciding to take a dive and predict that Brazil’s Wolf Team will come out on top. Four out of five members are a part of the SG esports lineup that managed to eliminate Team Secret in 2017’s Kyiv Major and a number of players have stood out on some occasions. For one example, soft support Danylo ‘Kingrd’ Nascimento makes some noise as the offlaner of Jacky ‘EternalEnvy’ Mao’s stack in last year’s NA qualifier. Midlaner Adriano ‘4dr’ Machado and offlaner Otávio ‘tavo’ Silva are both members of 2021’s SG esports who managed to grind their way through to TI despite an overall unremarkable performance throughout the year. Matheus ‘KJ’ Diniz had played with 4dr and tavo throughout 2020 and most of 2021 as the younger captain. Finally, William ‘hFn’ Anastácio have managed to beat beastcoast in 2021 with NoPing e-sports which once holds most of Thunder Awaken’s players. When you have five players of varying competitive experience who are hungry to prove themselves in the main stage, it’s almost hard to not suspect a shock victory in what some would cynically argue to be Dota 2’s weakest competitive region.

Now, one question remains. Will Wolf Team be capable of making a deep run in the tournament? It’s already a far-out assumption as we’ve yet to see if my prediction will come true. It’s worth bearing in mind however that all of the players have been staples in SA since the mid-2010s with varying successes. All five have played with each other at one point and each one is known for their individual skills. If an opportunity were to arise which enables them to make full use of their aggression, that’s one gamble that they’re willing to accept no matter how disadvantaged they are at one point of the game.

Western Europe

Now, this is one region that I’m well-aware of. Having followed this for a very long time alongside South-East Asia and China, I can confirm that this one could reasonably be argued as being stacked. There’s a lot of notable names like Alliance, Nigma Galaxy, or Team Secret; the big shocker would be that fans who had been following the game since the 2010s would not expect all of them to fight for what could potentially be only one slot to TI. Expect a lot of unexpected left turns as established names get eliminated by more ambitious players who spent years in the lower echelons of the competitive scene to make a reputation of themselves.

By that, I would not rule out the possibility that teams comprised of relatively unknown players like DGG Esports, Into The Breach, or even 11Monkeyz, having been founded in the last tour and on the verge of being eliminated in the second division, would be capable of going far in the qualifier. Even as the meta favours the laning phase to the mid-game as a deciding factor in the final outcome, one small mistake can lead to a turnaround in who’s in control of the game as shown by PSG.LGD against Royal Never Give Up last major.

Over the season, one team have stuck out in particular as having improved a lot ever since its founding and that is Entity (formerly a stack known as Creepwave). Led by Dzmitry ‘Fishman’ Palishchuk who’s leading his team since the very beginning of 2021, the amount of growth the team has shown is very impressive to say the least. Even barring the controversy when they pick up Ivan ‘Pure’ Moskalenko due to his unsavoury actions last tour in Eastern Europe with Virtus Pro, Entity is a team that continues to develop and hone its playstyle. Now, they’re noted for being very aggressive with virtually no hesitation when it comes to starting a teamfight anywhere on the map. Throw in a diverse hero pool with unorthodox picks and you have yourself a very formidable opponent who is not only close to securing top 4 in the Arlington Major without any prior experience in Valve-sponsored tournaments, but could roll over every team with ease.

In second place, I would put in Team Liquid. Comprising of Heroes of Newerth veterans Aydin ‘iNSaNiA’ Sarkohi and Michael ‘miCKe’ Vu alongside long-time teammate Samuel ‘Boxi’ Svahn, the addition of famed carry Lasse ‘MATUMBAMAN’ Urpalainen and offlaner Ludwig ‘zai’ Wåhlberg makes for one solid middle-of-the-pack lineup. While the team manages to clutch top four in their region throughout the game, they never succeeded in winning the finals nor have they made a deep run in one of the two majors, having only placed 12^th in both ESL One Stockholm and the Arlington Major. Despite these failures, the team still shows that they can compete on a high level and could even turn up as a dark horse at TI given the history of all of their players. The question rests on whether they can truly pull off a run that will etch their names on the aegis.

Eastern Europe

2022 has proved itself to be, to put it politely, a ‘shitshow’ for the entire region. With the invasion of Ukraine comes sanctions on the Russian oligarchs which translates to organisations like Virtus.pro being banned from participating Valve-run events. Another consequence is that it leads to a slight brain drain where players who are from one of the countries in Eastern Europe, but had left to play in another region like Mikhail ‘Misha’ Agatov, are more reluctant to return in fear of prosecution. In a nutshell, while Russia’s position as one of the powerhouse countries in Dota 2 remains apparent, even natives from neighbouring countries would think twice about whether collaborating with them would be a wise decision both for their safety and if the public would find it acceptable. Being the region that’s notable for its constant teamfights, skirmishes, and a notoriously problematic attitude in the playerbase, chaos is always found in the game.

In spite of the unpredictability, there are two teams who shows the potential to qualify. This might come off as being expected, but I would expect Outsiders to pull through. All of their core players are established as the best in the region and they have the experience to back it up at a young age and even their supports are highly ranked in the leaderboards. They’re extraordinarily close to being a part of the top 12 teams who are invited to TI and there are controversies surrounding whether Valve’s rounding system on who gets to be invited is fair when Outsiders just so barely outdid Fnatic by half a point initially without any rounding. In theory, this qualifier should be a cruise as long as neither of the players were to tilt.

On the other hand, it would be pretty sick to see an old name like NAVI rise up from the ashes to try and make an impressive run even if they’re a visage of a once-prestigious name in the competitive scene. Similarly with Outsiders, the Ukraine-based team contains a mix of talented notable names and relative newcomers who had made some waves prior to joining the team. Especially with Volodymyr ‘Noone’ Minenko whose reputation as one of the best midlaner in the world had long been re-established, the team is gradually re-building the reputation that the esports organisation once have. Nevertheless, the road to TI is still long and there will be a lot more effort when it comes to dealing with a team with a higher skill ceiling like Outsiders before they can walk away with all the fame in the world.

China

Traditionally known as the region where the teams are the closest in terms with skill gap, anyone with a talent that’s good enough to be on an Upper Division team could take a game from others and vice versa. Even if the country haven’t been successful in its attempt to secure another TI in its belt, they still own some of the best teams in the competitive scene and they could very easily stomp other regions if they truly feel motivated enough. In the qualifier, there are a lot of recognisable names from old names like Vici Gaming to fresh newcomers such as ShenZhen and if there’s one thing they all have in common, it’s that they could easily make a splash into the biggest tournament of the year.

However, to keep the article as short as possible (which, needless to say, is already huge), there are two teams that I think will be top two. I feel that the strategies in this region will be among the most diverse from late-game centred with a scalable carry to precise teamfighting abilities. Ultimately however, some teams are generally better than others and are thus expected to qualify over a sea of dark horse candidates.

The first one is Xtreme Gaming – one of the newer names although its lineup is comprised almost entirely of veterans aside from their carry Lou Zhen. Support duo Xiong ‘Pyw’ and Ding ‘Dy’ Cong are known as one of the best and sticks out from last year’s Vici Gaming lineup for their stability, warding, and ability to make game-winning plays. Midlaner and ex-carry Zhang ‘Paparazi’ Chengjun shows up with some of the best individual performances in his career on a role that he haven’t touched since 2016. To add credibility, he even won a solo tournament as part of 2017’s Dota 2 Asia Championships – a scenario that most midlaners tend to contend in. Finally, Ren ‘old eLeVeN’ Yangwei, despite his inconsistency, is still known as one of China’s very best offlaners & if there’s a need for him to step up his game, he would do so in style.

On the other hand, while the team does slouch in the first tour of the season, I suspect that Invictus Gaming are slowly, yet gradually, getting better after a shuffle in the soft support role. With the acquisition of one of the greatest support players in Xu ‘fy’ Linsen, the team seems to have found its footing and I would not rule out a likelihood that they’ll beat even RNG for top 2. Carry player Jin ‘flyfly’ Zhiyi tends to play a less flashy role with greater focus towards just dealing damage while midlaner Zhou ‘Emo’ Yi would make game-winning moves for the team – and make some bravado in the process. The two Malaysian players in offlaner Thiay ‘JT-’ Jun Wen and Chan ‘Oli’ Chon Kien once played in SEA as part of Geek Fam’s 2017-18 roster and have since then further solidify their status as one of their country’s best players. Formidable and yet calculated when it comes to teamfight, IG could turn up big when you least expect it.

South East Asia

Similar to China, South East Asia is a region where it feels like anyone can take a game away from each other. However, it’s not renowned so much for its innovation as it is for pure chaos. Long games are expected with misplays and unorthodox decisions being made all the way throughout. I follow the region for a long time and even I can’t really handpick who could reasonably seen as the best. You have names like Team SMG, T1, or RSG with veterans who’ve played for a long time. However, the main problem around them is that they are still marred with signs of instability, lack of discipline, or overall sloppiness in their teamfights or strategies throughout the game.

However, while I did notice that the region’s unpredictability would leave my guesses weird at best and awfully misinformed at worst, I believe two teams could rise up to become contenders for TI qualification. One notable narrative that arose in the scene is the possibility that one day, a team will emerge out of the region that could make a remarkable run in the tournnament or at least give their Chinese and Western competitors a run for their money. Look at T1’s roster last year for example or most notably, Orange Esports‘s run back in 2013 which culminates in a third place, having lost a close game against NAVI after a serious mistake have been made.

The favourite would have to be Talon Esports. It’s made up of skilled and experient players from offlaner Damien ‘kpii’ Chok who’s been playing since 2015 with a second place at TI in 2017 with Newbee to up-and-coming carry Nuengnara ‘23savage’ Teeramahanon who just played for T1 throughout the 2021-2022 season. You have capable playmaking support players like Worawit ‘Q’ Mekchai and Brizo Adi ‘Hyde’ Putra Budian who, in their previous teams in Motivate.Trust Gaming and BOOM Esports respectively, stood out for their flexible hero pool and consistency in performance. Finally, you have Rafli ‘Mikoto’ Rahman who, despite being criticised in the past for his inconsistency, had delivered some of his most solid performances of the season since the beginning of the year. While there’s still a long road ahead for the team to give the 12 invited teams a run for their money, the talents shown should be one proof that they are not to be trifled with.

On the other hand, my pick for second place is random but I feel like the Philippines’s Execration could show up in the top 2. All five players are regarded as being brilliant in their roles for a good reason. Jim Marrey ‘Palos’ Lamantao is amongst the best Morphling player in the world and despite being capable of making blunders at times, his farming and aggression is something to be marvelled at. Captain Ralph Richard ‘RR’ Peñano is a veteran with relatively successful periods spent on many Filipino teams and Mark ‘Shanks’ Redira is, in my opinion, an underrated soft support whose playmaking potential is not to be underestimated. Mark Anthony ‘Bob’ Urbina might not be the most mechanically skilled midlaner in the world, but he does his job well enough with not much unnecessary risks taken to seal a win. Finally, Justine Ryan ‘Tino’ Grimaldo shows his reputation of being flexible through his transition from being a carry to an offlaner. Often playing as either Mars or Dragon Knight, his preference as the tank will allow any real opportunity for a counteraction from his team once he takes the bait. I’m curious to see where this team will end up in.

Last Chance

The ‘Last Chance’ qualifier takes in the runner-ups from all six regions in a bid to find the best two teams to join the major. As a summary, I believe that IG and Team Liquid will be the two teams that will move on through to TI on the basis of the lineups’ experiences on the international stage, the renown for each player, being able to host a capable captain, and a diverse hero pool to make drafting a breeze. As said in the beginning, this could easily go wrong as the recent patch can, and will, turn the meta of the game in favour of a certain playstyle or strategy.